Can the Jaguars Actually Have Back to Back Winning Seasons??… This and Other AFC South Predictions That Will Upset Fans.

Stay with me here. This is my first ever article for publication, so this may be an adventure.  

What follows will be my own opinion of what I think will happen with the AFC South this season. The first attempt is post free agency, draft and rookie camp. My intent is to update this sometime around the end of Training Camp and Preseason, and then revisit and refine it around Week 5 or 6 and then at the end of the season see how my predictions stack up. My belief is that you learn a lot from the first few weeks of the season and that any prediction made before the 1^st quarter of the season will never be accurate. For the most part, teams show who they will be in those first few weeks, but don’t be blinded by records. 

 Just last season showed us that a good or bad record in Week 5 may or may not tell us the story. The Titans started out fairly hot, ringing up a 7-3 record, but they were only winning ugly against bad teams, while losing to the Giants, Bills and Chiefs. In fairness, the Titans were hit with an unprecedented injury streak, but anyone that wasn’t blinded by their fandom could see that the Titans weren’t the class of the AFC. On the other hand, the Jaguars started the season on a roller coaster, starting 2-3, including letting the Texans extend their four and a half season long sweep streak to nine straight wins. Even though the Jaguars on the surface looked like the Jaguars of the past, there was something about them that looked like they could make a run, and I even made the prediction that they would win the AFC South, met with a chorus of laughter by,… well pretty much everyone that saw it, including Jaguars fans. The team took a little time, but the team was able to gel behind first year Head Coach Doug Pedersen and young quarterback Trevor Lawrence, and take advantage of the Titans inability to win a game after Thanksgiving, ultimately squeaking out an AFC South title, and an exciting playoff win to cap it off. Pretty records in the first few weeks aren’t always what they seem to be.

So, this season, I’m taking a chance and putting my insane musings “on paper,” for it all to come back and haunt me when it doesn’t happen. Let’s get started. My predictions at a glance.  

AFC South Final Standings 

* Prediction of Final Record and Standings 

Pre-Training Camp: I just went down the schedule and made a quick, first reaction prediction based on what I think I know at this moment. I don’t really think the Colts get swept by the entire division, but at first glance, that’s what I saw. It is near impossible to get a prediction even close at this point in the process. Even as I proofread through this article, I’m second and third guessing myself. “Are you insane or just a bit of a homer giving Houston that many wins?” (Probably a healthy dose of both on this one) “Are the Titans better, worse or just right in this prediction?” “Can the Colts REALLY be that bad? Surely not!” Rather than go back and forth with this and get my brain to start buffering, I’m sticking with my initial predictions here. 

Here’s my thinking on each team: 

Jaguars (10-7, 1^st) Wins: Colts (x2), Texans, Falcons, Saints, Steelers, Titans, Browns, Buccaneers, Panthers Losses: Chiefs, Bills, 49ers, Texans, Bengals, Ravens, Titans 

Until further notice, the Jaguars seem to be the odds-on favorite to win the division again, but they will play a first-place schedule this season, so they get the best of the NFL when they play outside of the division. I believe the Jaguars are a very much improved team, and will only get better with Calvin Ridley. 10-7 doesn’t seem like much of an improvement, but considering their schedule, it is. It’s a little bit homer, a little bit history, but I picked the Texans to sneak one, but don’t bet on it. The Jags maybe get one extra W and the Texans an extra L.  

Overall, Jaguars fans should end the season with their first back-to-back winning seasons in what seems like forever, a second straight AFCS title, and be poised to make some noise in the playoffs. 

Texans (8-9, 2nd) Wins: Colts (x 2), Falcons, Panthers, Buccaneers, Jaguars, Cardinals, Titans  

Losses: Ravens, Jaguars, Steelers Saints Bengals Broncos Browns Jets Titans 

The Texans are hard to pin down. Can new Head Coach DeMeco Ryans get his brand-new rookies including CJ Stroud, Will Anderson, and Tank Dell performing at a high enough level to quickly get to a point of respectability? While I think the Texans will be much improved, I see them having growing pains with so many rookies that will likely be contributing. I’ve made a lot of Texans fans mad at me with this before: I think Robert Woods either doesn’t make the team, or he is pushed down the depth chart quickly, leaving Stroud throwing to a bunch of inexperienced receivers. Dameon Pierce should benefit from a vastly improved O line and become a force, and the defense under Ryans can’t be worse than they were last year, but I am going out on a limb and saying that they become a top half of the league unit by week 5.  

Once again, probably count on them losing both to the Jaguars and dropping a bit. 

Titans (7-10, 3rd) Wins: Saints, Colts (x 2), Falcons, Buccaneers, Panthers, Texans 

Losses: Chargers, Browns, Bengals, Ravens, Steelers, Jaguars (x 2), Dolphins, Seahawks, Texans 

The end of last season was a train wreck. The Titans changed it up at GM, but did they really? It seems to be the same old story in Nashville. This team has a huge question mark at quarterback that can’t be answered yet; they failed to address a gaping hole at wide receiver… this WR group may be the worst in the league… which isn’t going to help the QB situation; and Derrick Henry isn’t getting any younger as he reaches the 30-year-old mark where running backs typically fall off a cliff. Henry isn’t a typical back though, so it will be interesting to see what happens there. Does Tannehill have another season or two of plus play at QB, or will Mayo Levis be better than his draft day slide suggests? I may have been too forgiving with this team by giving them 7 wins and a 3^rd place finish. This Titans team feels a lot like last year, a mirage of a team that should be decent on paper that just doesn’t feel like it actually is a good team at all.  

Colts (5-12, 4^th) Wins: Rams Panthers Buccaneers Falcons Raiders 

Losses: Jags (x 2), Texans (x2), Ravens, Titans (x 2), Browns, Saints, Patriots, Bengals, Steelers 

Like the Texans, the Colts are really hard to predict. I said it before and I’ll say it again here. I don’t believe that the Colts get swept by the division. But I can’t find any game I feel real confident about them taking a W right now. The Colts situation and ultimate record comes down to this… who is Anthony Richardson really? He is such an intriguing player, but there’s not enough information yet to know what he will do. I’m not sure that either Gardner Minshew or Sam Ehlinger are the guy to get meaningful wins while AR15 develops, so the Colts season really hinges on whether Richardson is ready Week 1 or if he takes time to be ready to take the ball. Everywhere else on the field is decent to very good, but if the quarterback position is a mess, so will the team be.